1st Test - Dubai, UAE
Pakistan v Australia
People who are visiting the blog regularly would have spotted a trend. From the T20I to ODIs, my loyalty from Australia has been shifting towards Pakistan. Even though the Pakistanis won none of the matches, the trend would continue for the test series also.
Read my previous reviews of T20I, ODI 1, ODI 2, ODI 3.
Odds for the match as of today is
Pakistan - 4/1
Australia - 7/10
Draw - 5/2
Finally after a long wait both squads are announced. Both teams have announced a 16 member squad.
Squads
Australia
Chris Rogers
David Warner
Alex Doolan
Michael Clarke
Steven Smith
Phillip Hughes
Mitchell Marsh
Glenn Maxwell
Brad Haddin
Mitchell Johnson
Peter Siddle
Steve O'Keefe
Nathan Lyon
Ben Hilfenhaus
Mitchell Starc
James Faulkner
Pakistan
Misbah-ul-Haq
Ahmed Shehzad
Asad Shafiq
Azhar Ali
Ehsan Adil
Haris Sohail
Imran Khan
Mohammad Hafeez
Mohammad Talha
Rahat Ali
Sarfraz Ahmed
Shan Masood
Taufeeq Umar
Yasir Shah
Younis Khan
Zulfiqar Babar
Analysis
The UAE heat is something that has bothered me from choosing Australia as clear winners. All the 4 matches that has happened in this series, I have got my tips right. And my thoughts are getting more substantiated by each passing day.
Australia
1) All the matches started after 4.30 pm to avoid playing in the desert heat. You don't have that luxury in test matches. The gruelling desert heat is something you have to deal with.
2) A long series in UAE means more injuries. Australia's in-form batsman Warner is suffering from an injury. It's just a matter of time before any one of Marsh, Johnson, Siddle and Clarke gets injured (All are coming back from injuries). Australian's should be praying that no more casualties are added.
3) The performance on the practice match is an worrying indicator. The longer the game is, more the spin overs. Losing the match against 2nd string spin bowlers is not a great start.
Pakistan
If Australia has to address many issues, Pakistan has too many.
1) Younis Khan is coming back after having issues with his board. Can he fire or fade away?
Misbah is not in any form for quite some time. Now his morale at an all-time low, is there a possibility of a strong performance by him?
As these two players form the middle order, for me it looks completely empty.
2) Spin Bowlers: Pakistan's first choice spin bowlers hadn't had much impact on the previous matches. The second string bowlers troubling Australia may make them happy. But all the front line bowlers' tricks would have been analysed by the Australian team. Do they have more tricks to beat them?
3) Fast bowlers: Unexpectedly all front line fast bowlers of Pakistan are ruled out with injuries. Can the selected ones provide a surprise performance?
4) Do they have enough mental strength to play aggressive Cricket after losing 3 ODIs and a T20I?
I couldn't completely trust Pakistan after their dismal performance. I am not completely convinced of the Australian's either.
Tip
There is no clear winner in my opinion. But the game ending in a Draw is also out of the equation. Both teams doesn't have it in them to play 450 overs, over a period of 5 days. With spinners expected to play a major part 460-470 overs is a possibility. Rain is not a worry in the desert.
Double Chance - Australia or Pakistan - 2/7 - 7$
If you have more risk appetite pick Pakistan and cover on Australia above Evens.
Bank as of 20-Oct - 128.5$
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