CL T20 - Stat-Attack #1

Some interesting stats from CL T20 Main Round matches, that I'll be using for devising my strategies for the next (and final) 6 matches of this tournament.

How did I started predicting the initial matches of the main draw? I used the qualifier matches as indicators to do the main round analysis.

This is the very basic stat that one has to go through. In T20 chasing teams always have an advantage, which is evident from this table.

Note : This is not exactly a statistical analysis. This is a gambler's analysis to predict how the future results may be affected.

Match #	Team A	Team B	Result	Favourites?	Chasing?	My Match Tip
1	Chennai	Kolkata	Kolkata	No	Yes	Void
2	Hobart	Punjab	Punjab	Yes	Yes	Won
3	Cobras	Northern	Northern	Yes	No	Won
4	Dolphins	Perth	Perth	Yes	Yes	Avoided
5	Barbados	Punjab	Punjab	Yes	Yes	Won
6	Cobras	Hobart	Hobart	Yes	Yes	Won
7	Kolkata	Lahore	Kolkata	Yes	Yes	Won
8	Chennai	Dolphins	Chennai	Yes	No	Lost
9	Hobart	Northern	Hobart	No	No	Won
10	Kolkata	Perth	Kolkata	Yes	Yes	Won
11	Chennai	Lahore	NR	NR	NR	NR
12	Barbados	Cobras	Cobras	Yes	Yes	Won
13	Punjab	Northern	Punjab	Yes	No	Avoided
14	Dolphins	Lahore	Lahore	Yes	No	Lost
15	Chennai	Perth	Chennai	Yes	No	Won
16	Barbados	Hobart	Hobart	Yes	Yes	Won
17	Cobras	Punjab	Punjab	Yes	Yes	Won

 

How do I read this stat

Out of the 17 matches 1 got washed out because of rain. So 16 matches are under consideration.

Chasing teams have won 10 out of 16 matches. So Chasing vs Batting First = 10:6.

Favorites are leading by 14:2. There are little surprises in this tournament. So if you had gone In-Play and picked the favorites at higher prices you are on tremendous profit.

Chennai lost the match Batting First even though they are the favorites. Hobart did the reverse, the non-favorites defended their total. These two matches followed slightly different pattern from the remaining matches. I got both those matches right, by combining my analysis based on team strength and the pattern analysis.

I started sidelining with the non-favorites from Match#8. At that time favorites were on a streak of 6 matches. But my tip lost on that match , but in Match#9 I got it right when the streak was broken. Now you can see another favorite streak of 7 matches from Match#10 to Match#17.

What will you do now!! Only a gambling addict/fool will sideline with the favorites right now. One must be patient and analyze as many factors as possible before jumping into a match.

The options available are

1) Simply start a martingale on the non-favorites with small stakes.

2) Enter on non-favorites Pre-Match and cover your investments when favorites are under trouble.

3) Play the favorites with very small stakes till an upset happens.

 

History repeats itself, at the same time its meant to be broken as well.

So identify when The History Will Repeat and when The History Will Be Broken :)

 

More stats to follow as separate posts [Do not expect more today, it'll be done whenever I find time].