Match # 8
Chennai Super Kings (CSK) v Sunfoil Dolphins
I don't really know where to begin the analysis for this match. Let me start with the odds.
CSK are 1/3 and Dolphins are 9/4 with BetVictor, the numbers have been so much worrying.
I have been repeatedly saying this, the bookmakers are shortening the odds too much in favour of the favourites. I expected the odds to be at a low of 1/2. I feel 4/6 is the correct odd for CSK.
Chennai Super Kings
They are facing lot of issues right now. Many players of CSK were part of the England series and fatigue looks like an issue. I am not seeing any end to their problems with the bowling department.
Asish Nehra
He was the only bowler who bowled tremendously in the previous match. But Nehra is so famous for his stamina and fitness issues. He was the butt of many jokes in previous IPL versions. How far can he go with this form?
Ashwin and Jadeja
The spin duo who were one of the main reasons for the victory against England, are not up to the mark. Looks like continuous fixtures have got them tired.
McCullum and Smith
The opening pair gave a decent start in the last match. But the form of these two is not very convincing yet.
Dolphins
From 12/3 they scored 164. Lost the match by giving the required 12 runs in 2 balls. Their bowling has lesser weaknesses compared to CSK's. Their batting looks reasonable as well.
Tip
Be very cautious, that'd be my suggestion for this match. There is a streak going on. The match favorites have won 6 matches continuously. And from the history of the tournament, favorites with too shortened odds struggled big time or lost convincingly.
Bangalore is getting nearer to it's winter season. So dew becomes a factor for the defending team. If Dolphins chase a reasonable total they become favorites.
Dolphins @ 9/4 - 0.5 units.
I have taken a contrarian call since the favorites streak is a bit extended. If Dolphins bat first and post a score of below 150 go In-Play on CSK to cover your losses. Play small stakes for this match.
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